A stunning new Texas Public Opinion Research poll has shaken up the Texas Senate race, showing Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 45% to 40% among likely voters. With 14% of voters still undecided, the race remains highly competitive heading into early voting. The survey also finds Talarico dominating among independent voters and leading with non-college educated voters—an unexpected shift in a group that has traditionally backed Republicans. Meanwhile, nearly one in five Republican voters remain undecided or say they could support Talarico, raising new questions about GOP unity. Republicans argue support will consolidate behind Paxton, while Democrats believe Paxton’s controversies could reshape the race. With less than 12 weeks until early voting, the battle for Texas is becoming one of the most closely watched Senate contests in America.
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